Riskline 2026 Forecast

Travel Risk Outlook 2026

Contributors: Aidana Arynbek, Avantika Deb,  Bumjoon Park, Diego Maloney,  Eeva Ruuska, Marco Tulio Lara, Nikita Billier, Patricia Baruffi, Paul Mutter, Ramya DilipKumar, Roxana Dumitrescu, Ryan Rogers

As we look towards 2026, the global travel landscape is entering a period of significant transformation. Beyond the immediate effects of geopolitical shifts, climate change and public health concerns, emerging trends are reshaping how people move, how destinations respond and how organisations manage risk.

Travellers are increasingly seeking experiences that balance personal well-being, cultural engagement and environmental consciousness, while technology is enabling faster, more seamless journeys. At the same time, complex risks, from cyber threats to civil unrest, require sophisticated planning and agile responses. For organisations supporting international mobility and for business travellers, understanding these converging trends is critical to making informed decisions.

From Bleisure to Solo Adventure

The travel sector in 2026 will continue to evolve under the influence of changing behaviours, digital innovation and regulatory pressures. Work-life blending and bleisure travel are expected to remain strong, reflecting a continued desire to merge business responsibilities with personal enrichment. Slow travel, wellness retreats and ‘calmcations’ demonstrate a growing focus on restorative and immersive experiences, as travellers seek more meaningful engagement with destinations.

The outlook for inbound travel to the United States remains cautious. Policy uncertainty and new entry restrictions may temper growth, although numbers are expected to stabilise if no further deterioration occurs. However, perceptions of government hostility to tourists will linger going into major events such as FIFA World Cup 2026 and the 2028 Summer Olympics & Paralympics.

Solo travel continues to gain traction, with popular destinations including Bali, Thailand, India, Japan, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Australia and New Zealand. Cities such as New York, Vancouver, Sydney, Tokyo, Lisbon and Berlin remain key hubs. While solo travel offers flexibility and independence, safety and cultural awareness are critical considerations.

Health risks shaping travel in 2026

Health risks remain a central factor in travel planning. Respiratory illnesses are anticipated to pose significant challenges in 2026, with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warning of a potentially severe season. 

The CDC expects the 2025–2026 U.S. autumn and winter respiratory season to have a similar combined peak hospitalisation rate for COVID-19, influenza and RSV as last year, although multiple peaks and regional variations are possible. COVID-19 hospitalisations could increase if a new variant emerges, while influenza is expected to be moderate and RSV hospitalisations stable due to new immunisations for high-risk groups. Vaccination and preparedness remain key to managing hospital demand.

High-pollution regions are particularly concerning in countries such as IndiaPakistan and China, where seasonal factors like slash and burn activities, industrial emissions and dust storms can drastically reduce air quality; seasonal bushfires in Australia and New Zealand also significantly affect air quality in otherwise less-polluted cities.

Vector-borne diseases are expanding geographically due to climate change, with dengue, malaria and cholera posing heightened risks in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Marburg in Ethiopia remain significant concerns. La Niña weather patterns may further exacerbate disease outbreaks across multiple regions, underscoring the ongoing importance of disease monitoring and preparedness.

Global travel safety considerations

Safety considerations for 2026 are shaped by a complex interplay of crime, geopolitical tensions, climate hazards and technological threats. Certain regions present higher risks for solo travellers, particularly where violent crime, gender inequality or harassment is prevalent, including India, Mexico, Egypt, Morocco, Brazil, Colombia and South Africa. 

Rising anti-immigration sentiment, protests and targeted attacks are affecting Europe and Asia Pacific, including in the UKIreland and Australia. Anti-immigrant actions taken by the US government have also depressed tourism.

Drone sightings at European airports are also a growing operational concern. While many drone sightings appear to be false alarms, EU officials believe that some are orchestrated by Russia using criminal networks as part of an hybrid warfare campaign over the Ukraine conflict.

Stable, low-risk destinations continue to include countries with strong governance, robust infrastructure and reliable services, such as China, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Southeast Asia, much of Europe, North America, Chile and Argentina.

Cross-border tensions and regional conflicts are expected to persist, including:

Advice for companies

As 2026 unfolds, the global travel environment will be defined by a convergence of opportunity and risk. Travellers are navigating a world where technology, environmental pressures and societal shifts intersect with traditional challenges such as political instability, crime and health threats. 

The most resilient and prepared travellers will be those who combine real-time intelligence, expert guidance and personal awareness. Organisations managing international mobility must integrate these insights into policy, planning and support structures to safeguard their people while enabling meaningful and productive travel. Ultimately, understanding the subtle interplay of these forces, not simply responding to headlines, will define success in navigating a travel landscape that is simultaneously complex and unpredictable.

Check out the full 2026 Forecast.

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