The security situation in Venezuela deteriorated sharply in early January after a major US military operation led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. The development marks the most significant shift in Venezuela’s political landscape in decades and has plunged the country into uncertainty.
Maduro’s arrest, announced by President Trump on 3 January following coordinated US airstrikes on Caracas and key military sites, has destabilised the government and increased the risk of further conflict. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has since been appointed acting president, but the durability of the current power structure remains unclear amid intense international and military pressure.
Escalation Timeline
August-September 2025:
The US initiated a military build-up in waters off the Venezuelan coast, deploying warships to counter alleged narco vessels transporting drugs to the US. Drone strikes targeting these vessels were carried out in the southern Caribbean Sea and the eastern Pacific.
November-December 2025:
Additional US naval assets, including an aircraft carrier strike group, were deployed to the Caribbean. Venezuela mobilised a national militia and deployed approximately 25,000 troops along the Caribbean coast and the Colombia border. In November, President Trump ordered the closure of Venezuelan airspace, while in December, he ordered a naval blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.
24 December 2025:
The US conducted its first strike within Venezuelan territory, targeting a port facility allegedly used by narco-trafficking networks.
3 January 2026:
The US launched multiple airstrikes on Caracas and surrounding military and transport infrastructure, including Fort Tiuna, La Carlota Air Base, El Libertador Air Base, Higuerote Airport and the Port of La Guaira. Hours later, President Trump announced that US special forces had captured President Nicolás Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores and transferred them to the US. At least 100 people were killed during the fighting, including 32 Cuban soldiers killed by US commandos during Maduro’s extraction.
3 January 2026:
Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice appointed Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting president.
Our Response: Agility and Accuracy
US–Venezuela Escalation Coverage
Our analysts worked around the clock to deliver clear, timely intelligence as the situation unfolded.
- Rapid response to breaking developments: We issued 17 alerts on Venezuela following the 3 January attacks.
- Continuous monitoring: Security developments, airspace risks and transport disruptions were tracked in real time.
- Frequent advisory updates: We revised the “Heightened tensions between Venezuela and the US” advisory and published a new advisory on Caribbean flight disruptions.
- Verified intelligence: All information was cross-checked against official statements, military activity and local reports amid high uncertainty.
Impact on Travel
Flight disruptions and airspace risk
Multiple international airlines have suspended or cancelled operations at Caracas Simón Bolívar International Airport (CCS). Aviation authorities issued NOTAMs for the Maiquetía Flight Information Region (SVZM), urging operators to exercise caution at all altitudes due to intensified military activity. Navigation signal disruptions have also been reported. Over 500 flights were cancelled in the Piarco (TTZP), San Juan (TJZS) and Curaçao (TNCF) flight information regions on 3-4 January due to military operations.
Airline suspensions and operating restrictions
Most international carriers have halted services to Venezuela, while authorities have revoked operating rights for selected airlines until further notice. Operators continue to reassess routes and schedules amid ongoing security risks.
Border and coastal security measures
A nationwide state of emergency remains in effect. Heightened security is in place along Venezuela’s borders and coastal areas, particularly in the southern Caribbean. Colombian authorities have reinforced security along the Colombia-Venezuela border. Venezuela also closed its border with Brazil.
Consular and diplomatic limitations
The US Embassy in Caracas is closed. US citizens in Venezuela have been advised to shelter in place, with limited consular assistance available through the US Embassy in Colombia.
What to Expect
Further military action possible
The risk of renewed US strikes remains high, particularly if cooperation demands related to migration, drug interdiction or oil revenues are not met by the Venezuelan government.
Political uncertainty
The capture of Maduro has created significant uncertainty within Venezuela’s power structure. While the ruling party and security forces currently appear cohesive, internal fractures or a military takeover cannot be ruled out. However, the opposition has been sidelined.
Ongoing disruptions
Travel disruptions, airspace warnings and operational uncertainty are expected to persist. Sudden airspace closures, flight cancellations and additional security measures remain possible.
Our Commitment to Excellence
The US-Venezuela escalation underscores the need for fast, fact-based intelligence in rapidly changing situations. Through continuous monitoring, verification and timely analysis, we help clients navigate this complex and unpredictable environment. We remain closely watchful and ready to provide further updates as the situation develops.
“There are more questions than answers at this point, including how the new Venezuelan government under Acting President Delcy Rodríguez and her relationship with the military and with the United States will play out. Answers to these questions could signal a path to stability in Venezuela or further chaos. Regionally, the ousting of Maduro has not yet brought significant changes. Further down the line, stability could pave the way for the return of millions of Venezuelans who fled the regime in the last decade. On the other hand, this escalation indicates that US military action targeting narco-trafficking in other countries, including Colombia and Mexico, cannot be ruled out”.
Marco Tulio Lara, America’s Analyst