In Ethiopia, the June general elections proceeded under difficult security conditions but reinforced the dominance of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party. Voting was uneven, with several areas excluded due to insecurity and disruptions reported in Amhara and Oromia. While the government framed the elections as evidence of democratic consolidation, continued regional tensions, limited opposition participation and ongoing conflicts underscore persistent challenges to national cohesion and political inclusion.

In Guinea-Bissau, general elections scheduled for 6 December are expected to take place under military oversight following the 2025 coup and subsequent political restructuring. The vote will be a key test of whether the transitional authorities can oversee a credible return to civilian rule, but concerns remain over political freedoms, institutional independence and the influence of the armed forces. The risk of instability around the electoral process remains high.

In South Sudan, long-delayed elections remain planned for December but continue to face major uncertainty due to unresolved technical preparations, fragile political agreements and ongoing insecurity. Deep mistrust between the ruling SPLM and opposition groups, alongside persistent localised violence, raises questions about whether credible nationwide elections can be held on schedule.

Taken together, these cases highlight a broader regional pattern in which elections are taking place or being planned under conditions of political fragility, security challenges and limited institutional trust. While electoral processes continue to move forward, their ability to produce stable and widely accepted outcomes remains uncertain.