By Ryan Rogers
South Sudan is scheduled to hold its first-ever general elections in December. They will cover the presidency and all 550 seats of the National Legislative Assembly. The vote is meant to conclude the prolonged transitional period initiated after the 2018 peace agreement. Several previous dates (2015, 2018, 2021, 2023, 2024) were postponed due to conflict and political instability. President Salva Kiir Mayardit has publicly committed to maintaining the 2026 deadline. The National Elections Commission has begun preparing the process. However, major prerequisites remain incomplete: voter registration has yet to begin, constituency boundaries have not been finalised and the permanent constitution is still under negotiation. Funding disbursements remain insufficient, delaying procurement of election materials and deployment of personnel. These gaps raise concerns about whether polls can be conducted on time and nationwide.
Backdrop
What is at stake is the possibility of ending 13 years of transitional rule and establishing a more legitimate, elected government. However, the pre-electoral environment is increasingly fragile. Relations between the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the rival Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) have deteriorated sharply since the March 2025 house arrest of Riek Machar. The first vice president of South Sudan was suspended, indicted and put on trial on treason charges.
The SPLM-IO in turn declared the government illegitimate and suspended cooperation in election-related committees, casting doubt on broad political participation. Security conditions remain volatile. Clashes between the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces and SPLM-IO elements continue in Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity states, while intercommunal violence persists in several regions. The disputed Abyei area has seen renewed confrontations involving local militias and cross-border actors. These dynamics contribute to a high baseline risk of violence during campaigning and after results are announced.
Political violence is common in South Sudan and the vote is unlikely to be peaceful. Past responses to dissent, including live ammunition against protesters and curfews in Juba, suggest that authorities may intensify nationwide security measures around the election period. Restrictions on movement, added checkpoints and potential border controls are possible. Misinformation and competing claims of legitimacy could amplify instability.
Projected outcome
A major political shift is unlikely. The SPLM maintains strong control over state institutions, security forces and administrative structures, making Kiir the leading candidate if elections proceed. SPLM-IO participation is uncertain due to internal divisions and Machar’s detention, though smaller parties may contest some seats. Even if the vote proceeds, a smooth transition of power is far from guaranteed. Disputed results could lead to localised or widespread unrest, particularly in conflict-affected regions and areas dominated by opposition forces.
Organisations such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the African Union and the United Nations (UN) are pushing for enhanced political dialogue to reduce the risk of a contested outcome. The conduct and credibility of the 2026 elections will heavily influence regional stability, humanitarian conditions and the trajectory of peace efforts in East Africa. A peaceful vote could strengthen state legitimacy; a disputed or violent process may deepen fragmentation and prolong the crisis.