By Ryan Rogers

General elections are scheduled for 1 June to elect all 547 seats of the House of Peoples’ Representatives as well as nearly 3,000 regional councillors. The elections are likely to see Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali’s Prosperity Party maintain a commanding majority in the House. However, serious security concerns pose a major challenge to electoral operations. 

Backdrop

Widespread conflict across Amhara and Oromia regions, as well as the deterioration of security in Tigray, create logistical challenges for the federal government that risk undermining the electoral process. Election officials plan to implement a three-tier security classification system nationwide. The plan includes red areas designated as unfit for voting due to insecurity. This mirrors previous elections where seats had been left vacant due to voting challenges. However, the suspension of voting in particular areas nonetheless threatens to exacerbate inter-regional tensions and erode the legitimacy of the results.

In Tigray, several political figures have also called for a postponement of the elections until certain regional issues are resolved. Some examples are the liberation of occupied territory from Amhara militias and Eritrean forces and the return of internally displaced persons (IDPs). Overshadowing this security context, relations continue to break down between the federal government and neighbouring Eritrea. Eritrea has accused the Ethiopian government of using tensions in Tigray and Amhara and historical colonial legacies as justification for aggressive actions. It says this could justify a potential invasion to gain access to the Red Sea.

Any challenges to the elections’ legitimacy may also fuel further political tensions, resulting in demonstrations and unrest. The Ethiopian government has engaged in an increasing crackdown on the country’s political and media landscapes through repressive measures such as the suspension of journalists and political parties. Although protests in Addis Ababa are relatively uncommon, security forces are likely to respond to demonstrations with violent suppression. Across conflict-prone areas, the imposition of states of emergency and martial law is common. These measures frequently restrict the freedom of assembly. They risk inflaming popular resentment and provoking unrest in the lead-up to and following the elections.

Projected outcome

The Prosperity Party is expected to retain its dominant position. However, participation gaps in conflict-affected regions could weaken the perceived legitimacy of the results. The country’s myriad security challenges in the lead-up to the election have significant implications for the wider region. As a rapidly developing country with a population of over 130 million people, Ethiopia serves as a major hub in East Africa. Addis Ababa’s Bole International Airport consistently ranks among the continent’s busiest airports. Ethiopia’s proximity to unstable states such as Somalia, Sudan and South Sudan increases the risk of regional instability. Potential unrest in the country could both exacerbate neighbouring conflicts and be influenced by them.