By Ryan Rogers
General elections, both presidential and legislative, are scheduled for 6 December in Guinea-Bissau. This will be the first nationwide vote since the 26 November 2025 military coup, which followed disputed elections held earlier that month. Voters will choose the next president and all 102 members of the National People’s Assembly. The assembly has been dissolved since 2023 and replaced by a transitional legislative council appointed by the junta. The High Military Command for the Restoration of Order, led by Horta Inta-A Na Man, seized power three days after the disputed November 2025 elections, alleging manipulation by President Umaro Sissoco Embaló. Operational concerns persist regarding voter registration, electoral logistics and the independence of electoral institutions. These factors may affect the feasibility of delivering a timely, credible vote.
Backdrop
The elections take place amid significant political fragility. The 2025 coup followed heightened political tensions. These included the exclusion of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), disputes over Embaló’s constitutional mandate, and clashes between security forces and opposition supporters. Opposition figures were detained after the coup, and while most were later released, political freedoms remain constrained.
Unrest erupted in Bissau soon after the military takeover, leading transitional authorities to impose a nationwide protest ban that is still intermittently enforced. Guinea-Bissau remains one of West Africa’s most coup-prone states. The armed forces’ deep institutional influence increases the risk of instability during the elections. Internal divisions within the military, though not publicly visible, remain a structural concern. Security conditions are expected to tighten in the months leading up to the vote. The transitional government may impose curfews, border controls and movement restrictions, especially if protests resume. Disinformation campaigns, efforts to delegitimise the opposition and possible foreign interference could undermine the integrity of the electoral process.
Regionally, Guinea-Bissau’s transition unfolds alongside military-led governments in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Together, they formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) after withdrawing from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Embaló’s overthrow raised ECOWAS concerns that Guinea-Bissau could realign toward the AES, further weakening the bloc’s regional cohesion.
Projected outcome
No clear frontrunner has emerged, and any major ideological shifts are unlikely. The transitional charter prohibits members of the military authorities, including General Inta-A, from contesting the presidency. Although opposition candidate Fernando Dias da Costa continues to claim he was the legitimate winner of the 2025 vote, his political status remains uncertain. The key question is whether the elections will end military oversight or further entrench the junta’s influence. The risk of post-electoral unrest is significant, particularly if the opposition alleges manipulation or if security forces intervene heavily during the vote. A smooth political transition appears improbable without strong international engagement, particularly from ECOWAS and the European Union. The regional implications are substantial. A credible election could strengthen democratic norms in coastal West Africa, while a contested process may embolden military regimes in the Sahel and increase regional fragmentation.