By Anika Holland and Marco Túlio Lara
General elections will be held in Brazil on 4 October to choose the president and vice president, as well as governors, senators and state and federal deputies. A run-off will take place on 25 October if required. The presidential election in particular will be marked by the absence of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro. This clears the way for a new right-wing candidate to face incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Backdrop
Four years after the remarkably tight 2022 election, Brazil remains a deeply divided society. Since Lula won a third term that year, a coup plot by Bolsonaro and his entourage was uncovered, nationwide roadblocks were held, and government buildings in Brasília were stormed by supporters of the defeated president to contest the results.
Bolsonaro himself was banned from running for office until 2030 and later convicted and imprisoned for the coup plot, which involved plans to assassinate Lula, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Following the January 2023 riots, Lula has been able to serve his term without further political violence from the opposition.
Political violence, which peaked in the run-up to the 2022 vote, fell sharply. It is unlikely that the country will see a repeat of the violent incidents recorded in that election cycle between left- and right-wing supporters.
Projected outcome
Former president Bolsonaro has anointed his son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, as his successor. The Bolsonaro name is still strong, but it is not what it once was and it carries significant baggage after the 2023 unrest. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, of the Republicans, is another possible contender, although his candidacy would put him at odds with Flávio. Even if Lula wins again, the conservative bloc in Congress will likely retain a significant number of seats. This will maintain the legislative counterbalance that has limited Lula’s agenda so far.
Allegations of fraud and doubts about the electronic voting system could still arise, as they did in the 2022 vote, but so far, the country looks set for a calmer vote than then.
A possible fourth term for Lula
Lula will attempt to secure a historic fourth term in office. If victorious, he is likely to maintain his focus on environmental protection, social programmes and international non-alignment. The leftist leader has faced dwindling approval ratings. However, he is still seen as a slight favourite due to the lack of a single powerful opposition leader and his success in getting most United States (US) tariffs on the agribusiness sector lifted.
Lula would continue a neutral foreign policy based on the rule of law, refraining from automatic alignment with any single country. A Bolsonaro or other right-wing presidency would likely weaken ties with China, Brazil’s largest trading partner. It would also deepen alignment with regional leaders who share similar ideologies. With sharply different proposals on each side, the outcome of the vote seems wide open.