By Anika Holland and Marco Túlio Lara
Brazil will hold general elections on 4 October to choose the president and vice president, as well as governors, senators and state and federal legislators. A second round will take place on 25 October if required. The presidential election will notably exclude former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest and barred from running. The two leading candidates are incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, Bolsonaro’s son.
Backdrop
Four years after the remarkably tight 2022 election, Brazil remains a deeply divided society. Since Lula won a third term that year, a coup plot involving Bolsonaro and his allies was uncovered, nationwide roadblocks were organised, and government buildings in Brasília were stormed by supporters of the defeated president to contest the results.
Bolsonaro himself was banned from running for office until 2030 and later convicted over a plot to overturn the 2022 election result and remain in power. Following the January 2023 riots, however, Lula has been able to serve his term without a repeat of political violence on the scale seen around the 2022 election and its aftermath.
Political violence, which peaked in the run-up to the 2022 vote, fell sharply. It is unlikely that the country will see a repeat of the violent incidents recorded in that election cycle between left- and right-wing supporters.
Projected outcome
Former president Bolsonaro has backed his son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, as his successor. The Bolsonaro name still carries considerable political weight, but it also attracts significant disapproval. Recent polls place Lula and Flávio well ahead of the remaining candidates. A 1 October Datafolha poll had Lula on 42% and Flávio on 38% in the first round, while a hypothetical second-round contest showed Lula on 48% and Flávio on 45%.
A recently uncovered bank scandal involving Banco Master and ongoing related investigations could hurt voting intentions for both candidates. Flávio is himself under investigation over allegations of corruption and money laundering, which he denies. The wider investigation has also drawn scrutiny to senior officials and members of the Supreme Court.
Even if Lula wins again, the conservative bloc in Congress will likely retain a significant number of seats. This will maintain the legislative counterbalance that has limited Lula’s agenda so far.
Allegations of fraud and doubts about the electronic voting system could still arise, as they did in the 2022 presidential election, but so far the country looks set for a calmer vote.
A possible fourth term for Lula
Lula will attempt to secure a historic fourth term in office. The president’s declining approval ratings and the prospect of other candidates backing Flávio in a run-off, however, pose challenges for the incumbent.
If re-elected, Lula is likely to maintain his focus on environmental protection, social programmes and international non-alignment, alongside an approach strongly grounded in the rule of law. On the other hand, a Flávio Bolsonaro administration would likely introduce a tough-on-crime agenda and weaken ties with China, Brazil’s largest trading partner, while deepening alignment with regional leaders who share similar ideologies.
