By Paul Mutter
Elections will be held on 3 November for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 33 seats (out of 100) in the Senate, as well as numerous state and local contests. Democrats hope to turn President Donald Trump’s growing unpopularity into major gains. The charged partisan environment presents risks of confrontation between the states and the Trump administration over vote security.
Backdrop
In the November 2024 elections, the Republican Party secured a trifecta to regain control of the White House and both chambers of Congress. In doing so, the party assembled an unprecedented multiracial coalition across class lines, drawing away many traditionally Democratic voters. President Trump won on a message of combating price inflation, mass deportations and pushing back against perceived left-wing cultural excesses.
Despite successfully passing draconian immigration restrictions and tax cuts early on, Republican leaders have since struggled to advance their agenda. While Trump’s border policies overall remain popular, resulting in the lowest rate of illegal border crossings in 50 years, approval for mass deportations has fallen sharply. Migrant arrests have caught up thousands of legal residents and citizens, causing significant economic dislocation in cities and widespread protests.
A December 2025 Supreme Court ruling restricted domestic deployments of the National Guard. Deadly unrest in Minneapolis since January has forced the administration to change tactics, at least temporarily.
Beyond immigration, Republican strategists have publicly and privately expressed dismay over other issues facing the administration, such as cuts to federal services, tariffs, healthcare and the now-global Epstein Files scandal. Even a February Supreme Court ruling against the tariffs is unlikely to undo the economic damage done to date. Nor is Trump willing to give them up, despite their unpopularity surpassing even the immigration issue’s negativity.
Projected outcome and implications
Polling, as well as off-year and special election results, show that the gains Trump made among voters in 2024 are evaporating. The negative polarisation that defined his first term, and led to the Democrats’ midterm successes in 2018, has returned.
If Democrats retake the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate, Trump’s legislative priorities will stall out. Bills will only pass with significant concessions to Democrats, while any stalemates will result in unpopular government shutdowns. Democrats have promised to ramp up oversight, compelling White House and Cabinet officials to appear to answer for their most controversial actions. The free hand the Trump administration has enjoyed abroad in pursuing military intervention and demanding trade and territorial concessions from US allies may also be reined in.
Democratic leaders’ main concern ahead of the elections is that the administration and its state-level allies may try to invalidate their potential losses. They attempted a similar effort in 2020-2021 with the “Stop the Steal” movement. Although the decentralised nature of US elections limits the federal role, Trump’s vague but growing threats to “intervene” and “take over” voting raise the prospect of a turbocharged “Stop the Steal” effort. This could include attempts to withhold election funding grants and even seize uncounted ballots. This alarming prospect will continue to hang over the entire election cycle. It raises the stakes and tensions dramatically for both parties.