By Roxana Dumitrescu

Somalia’s presidential election is slated for May, as President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term comes to an end. Despite a push to transition from the traditional clan-based indirect electoral model to a direct universal suffrage, a compromise was reached for a hybrid model. Under this model, the public will vote for Members of Parliament (MPs), and the MPs will elect the President. The concession aimed to appease federal member states Puntland and Jubaland, who denounced a power grab by the central government. Nevertheless, despite the establishment of the National Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (NIEBC), the implementation remains hindered by deep political rifts, security challenges and severe financial constraints.

Backdrop

Somalia’s political landscape is deeply unstable and fractured. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud seeks to extend his time in office beyond a second term. He has made efforts to change the provisional constitution, establish a new electoral system and redraw the federal map. These moves have raised concerns of a potential power grab and deepened mistrust between the Federal Government and key federal member states, especially Puntland and Jubaland. President Mohamud has pushed for universal suffrage to replace the traditional indirect model in which clan elders selected representatives. However, he encountered fierce opposition. Instead, a hybrid system was announced under which lawmakers will be directly elected but Parliament will still choose the president.

These internal frictions come at a perilous time, as the country remains mired in political violence. The transition from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) left it vulnerable. Al-Shabaab made significant gains in 2025, including expanding its presence around Mogadishu. Thus, amid a militant resurgence, the logistics of organising safe nationwide voting are very challenging without significant military intervention.

Militants pose a threat to candidates and voters, including in Mogadishu, Baidoa and Kismayo. The risk of unrest is also high, especially if a consensus is not reached on the voting model, with clashes similar to the 2021 electoral violence possible. Heightened security is expected nationwide to mitigate risks, with movement restrictions likely during the polling period. Additionally, misinformation campaigns aimed at swaying clan loyalties will proliferate. The financial stability of the government is also weak, jeopardising the hiring and retention of poll workers. 

Projected outcome and political implications

The projected outcome is currently clouded by procedural uncertainty. As opposition groups have called for a negotiated agreement and even rejected the process, it remains unclear if further talks will produce a new political agreement. Alternatively, the elections could proceed under the current arrangements, potentially reshaping the country’s governance and stability. Concerns are also raised that a new president will not be elected this year, amid eroding public credibility and persistent tensions. President Mohamud’s re-election is contested by a new opposition alliance, the Somali Future Council. The alliance includes former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire. Given the current political and security challenges, the elections, following the hybrid model, will likely be delayed and turbulent. Their legitimacy will be heavily contested regardless of the outcome, possibly worsening political fragmentation.