By Roxana Dumitrescu
Israel’s parliamentary elections are officially scheduled for 27 October. However, snap elections in May or September are likely due to internal coalition fractures. Incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has served for over 18 years, faces a deeply polarised political landscape. The upcoming vote is seen as a referendum on his legacy, split between a loyal pro-Netanyahu camp and a diverse “anyone but Bibi” bloc, both seeking a change in leadership.
Backdrop
Israel’s parliamentary elections come at a crucial moment for the country against the backdrop of the post-October 7 landscape and the Gaza War, heightened regional conflict with Iran and deep societal fractures. Voters will choose parties to fill the 120 seats in the Knesset. While officially set for October, an earlier vote in May or September is likely. This would happen particularly if the 2026 state budget fails to be approved by 31 March, which would trigger the automatic dissolution of the Knesset. Coalition instability, the unresolved ultra-Orthodox military draft crisis and shifting opposition alliances have also emerged as significant internal challenges.
These dynamics are further complicated by the ongoing judicial proceedings against Netanyahu. He faces corruption charges that have deepened public divisions and triggered anti-government sentiments and protests. It is unlikely that Netanyahu’s pursuit of a pardon, which must be granted by President Isaac Herzog, will succeed. The financial burden of prolonged military operations, increased defence spending, as well as cost-of-living concerns are the main issues that will intensify coalition tensions and shape campaigns.
Regional landscape
While domestic issues and the economy will dominate the political agenda, any regional escalation could instantly reshape the political landscape. Ongoing security concerns will impact the elections. There is huge volatility in Gaza, the West Bank, along the borders with Lebanon and Syria, and potential military escalation with Iran. Security will be increased across cities and at polling stations. Some disruptions are possible at border crossings, along with heightened checkpoints and restrictions in the West Bank. Elections have generally been held in an orderly manner. However, anti-government protests are likely ahead of, during and immediately after the vote, particularly in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Authorities are also on alert for possible misinformation, smear campaigns and foreign interference aimed at destabilising the democratic processes and deepening polarisation.
Projected outcome and political implications
The political arena remains split between two camps, a pro-Netanyahu coalition, anchored by right-wing and ultra-Orthodox allies, and an “anyone but Bibi” bloc that spans the ideological spectrum from the far-left to the far-right. Current polling suggests that Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud may remain the largest single party. It also suggests that both the pro-government and opposition blocs hover precariously near the 61-seat majority threshold. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has emerged as a potential challenger. He is seen as an alternative to Netanyahu’s leadership. Meanwhile, renewed Israeli Arab party unity would increase mobilisation within Arab communities. Nevertheless, amid domestic tensions, the outcome remains uncertain. There are several possibilities: a victory for the ruling coalition, a diverse opposition bloc uniting to oust Netanyahu or repeat elections if neither side manages to secure a majority.