By Roxana Dumitrescu
The High National Elections Commission has reaffirmed its willingness to hold long-anticipated presidential and parliamentary elections in mid-April. However, an exact date has not yet been announced and the fate of the vote remains uncertain. The timeline depends on municipal elections finishing by late March, along with funding, security guarantees and agreement on electoral laws between rival factions. The elections are intended to be nationwide. However, efforts to hold a unified vote to dissolve rival administrations and establish a single legitimate parliament face significant challenges. Low public trust, economic instability and the recent assassination of key political figures further complicate the situation.
Backdrop
The political landscape in Libya remains highly complex, with the country divided since the abortive 2021 elections. It is split between the internationally recognised Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU), led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, and the eastern-based Government of National Stability (GNS), headed by Osama Hammad, which is backed militarily by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA). The April elections are meant to end this parallel governance. A successful vote would determine the country’s first legitimate head of state in over a decade. It would also reshape parliamentary representation and allow for long-delayed reforms.
The process is overseen by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). However, ongoing political and security crises continue to hinder the elections. The political impasse between the two rival governments persists, with a deadlock over proposed legislation, particularly over candidate eligibility and whether a unified interim government should be formed to organise the vote. Parallel courts continue to issue contradictory rulings, with any election results likely to be legally challenged by the losing side in their preferred court system, voiding the results.
Security challenges ahead of the vote
The security environment is equally fraught, with militias having repeatedly clashed, and the risk of election-related violence is high. The February assassination of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi has already triggered unrest and created a power vacuum in the south and centre of the country, heightening the risk of retaliatory violence. The recent devaluation of the dinar and persistent oil-revenue disputes have also fuelled public discontent. Any further electoral delays risk triggering demonstrations and calls for self-governance in stable areas.
Given these conditions, the vote is unlikely to be carried peacefully. The cities most likely to be affected include Tripoli, Benghazi and Sabha, as well as western municipalities such as Zawiya and Misrata. Digital misinformation, candidate-level smear campaigns and foreign interference from regional powers represent credible concerns. Security is expected to be significantly tightened in the lead-up to voting, and travel disruptions, including border closures and restricted movement within urban centres, are highly likely.
Projected outcome and political implications
A final agreement on electoral laws is needed for credible elections, with talks expected to resume in March. No clear candidates have emerged, especially following the assassination of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi. The 6+6 Committee, the joint legislative drafting body, has failed to reach a consensus. Current PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and LNA commander Khalifa Haftar remain the dominant prospective candidates. However, both face significant opposition.
At this moment, a smooth transition of power is highly unlikely, with both sides likely to reject the results. Regionally, a successful election would have a significant impact, especially for stabilising the Sahel and Mediterranean migration routes. Conversely, a failed or contested vote will either continue the stalemate or re-ignite conflict. With April fast approaching, it remains to be seen if this will become another chapter in Libya’s cycle of postponed transitions or a beacon of change.