By Roxana Dumitrescu

Somalia’s presidential elections, slated for May, have been postponed for a year after President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud extended his term. The move came despite the opposition’s protests and refusal to recognise his ongoing legitimacy. The country has thus entered a dangerous period and risks sliding deeper into political fragmentation due to rival claims to constitutional legitimacy and a lack of an agreed path towards elections or a political transition.

Backdrop

Although the parliament’s four-year mandate expired in April 2026 and the president’s term officially ended on 15 May, controversial constitutional amendments, approved by Parliament and signed by the President in March 2026, extended both parliamentary and presidential terms from four to five years, pushing elections to 2027. The government claimed the amendments allow for technical preparations for an eventual “one-person, one-vote” election. Somalia has struggled for more than two decades to shift from a clan-based indirect electoral system to nationwide direct elections based on universal suffrage. However, the opposition, including the Somali Future Council, backed by regional states such as Puntland and Jubaland, has denounced the new framework as a self-serving “constitutional coup,” signalling their intent to establish parallel political processes. Questions have also been raised about the feasibility of organising direct elections, since the federal government lacks authority beyond the capital.

Preparations for the elections, which should have been held before Mohamud’s term expired, were also delayed by deep-seated political disagreements among the elite, funding constraints and limited institutional capacity. Additionally, mechanisms such as voter registration, constituency delimitation and security for national elections remain only partially developed.

Projected outcome and political implications

The ongoing political standoff triggered armed clashes between government forces and opposition militias in Mogadishu in early June. The confrontation raised concerns about the risk of escalation into a broader conflict, especially as militant groups could exploit ensuing security vacuums and political divisions. Although the violence has since subsided following local mediation, the underlying political disagreements remain unresolved and could reignite at any moment. This political crisis is also unfolding against a backdrop of chronic insecurity, worsening humanitarian needs, economic instability and pervasive governance challenges.