By Diego Maloney and Jesús Aguilar
Colombia held its runoff for its presidential election on 21 June after no candidate won an absolute majority in the first round. Right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella won the runoff, signaling a significant shift in Colombia’s expected domestic and foreign policy moving forward. Espriella will seek to revitalise the nation’s security apparatus to combat armed groups that have wreaked havoc on rural populations a decade after the signing of a historic peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in 2016. His administration will face significant opposition from left-wing politicians over their fears of a shift towards a more autocratic government in Espriella’s attempt to clamp down on violence fueled by drug trafficking.
Backdrop
The election results mark the end of the so-called ‘Petrismo’ project, based on economic redistribution, environmentalism and energy transition. The populace, fed up with embezzlement scandals and a lack of progress in pacifying the nation and delivering justice to victims of violent attacks, voted for right-wing political newcomer Abelardo de la Espriella over his left-wing opponent Iván Cepeda, who represented the failures of outgoing president Gustavo Petro. The inability to implement the ‘Total Peace’ plan with the National Liberation Army (ELN), dissidents from the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) or the Gulf Clan significantly pushed the vote towards the conservative, tough-on-crime approach presented by de la Espriella.
Colombia has continued efforts to tackle its security crises and the rise of political violence, including the assassination of senator and presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay in June 2025. The elections raised concerns among experts about the potential for violence in areas deemed strongholds for armed groups, including 170 municipalities across Arauca, Antioquía, Bolívar, Cauca and other departments. Despite this, no significant attacks were reported during either round of the elections. Unrest did, however, erupt in Bogota and Cali after left-wing protesters, fueled by allegations of election fraud, burned United States (US) flags and triggered overland travel disruptions over de la Espriella’s proposed security policies.
Projected outcome and political implications
De la Espriella is expected to move quickly to strengthen Colombia’s armed forces as part of a broader push to combat the country’s worsening insecurity. He is also expected to deepen ties with the Trump administration, building on an already warm relationship: Trump endorsed De la Espriella’s candidacy, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said the administration looks forward to working closely with the incoming government to advance regional security cooperation, curb illegal immigration to the US and strengthen economic ties.
His administration is likely to bring a marked shift toward more intense pressure on coca production and security crackdowns on armed groups, alongside closer alignment with Washington’s counter-cartel coalition in the region. This represents a clear break from Petro’s “Total Peace” framework, which relied on negotiation to pacify Colombia’s rural areas and is now set to be wound down rather than extended.