In the Ukraine war, a negotiated settlement in 2025 appears likely as the belligerents tire and the US and Europe split on military support. In the Middle East, ceasefires remain elusive, and the coming year will potentially see an escalation in violence, including with Iran, the consequences of which would be dire for the wider region.

Easier to project are the conflicts which will see very little change due to a lack of international pressure or willingness to end them. At the top of this list is Sudan, which will enter its third year of civil war. Other seemingly intractable conflicts include eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and Myanmar. 

Contemporary conflicts are often waged beyond the traditional battlefield or with novel weapons systems. Continuing trends from Ukraine and Gaza, artificial intelligence will be deployed for targeting, cyber attacks and other electronic warfare. The coming year holds the possibility of witnessing the first military attack in space, and we may finally discover at what threshold a cyber attack elicits a real-world attack in response.  

Politically, the biggest change will come as Donald Trump takes office again and the world reacts to the new American leadership. Tensions will rise with neighbours like Mexico and allies like the European Union, but the real shift will likely be in the US-China relationship, which has been trending adversarial, but will get worse.