By Ramya Dilip Kumar
On 8 February, the pro-monarchy Bhumjaithai Party, led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, won the snap general election by securing 190 out of 500 seats in the National Assembly and is in the process of forming a coalition government. The People’s Party (PPLE) has gone into opposition after winning 118 seats. Formed as a successor to the banned Move Forward Party, the PPLE positioned itself as a progressive group focused on political reform.
Backdrop
After the progressive Move Forward Party failed to gain Senate approval to form a government following its May 2023 election win and faced suspension over its campaign to amend the lèse-majesté law, the opposition Pheu Thai Party (PTP) elected Srettha Thavisin as Prime Minister in August 2023. Less than a year later, the Constitutional Court suspended Thavisin. The court alleged he had violated ethical standards by appointing a cabinet minister with a prior conviction. He was replaced by the PTP’s Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who was also suspended in August 2025. This followed a leaked call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen about the Thailand-Cambodia border clashes. Charnvirakul was then elected interim prime minister in September 2025.
In the latest elections, Charnvirakul got the backing of influential local elites, military figures and political families in both urban and rural areas of large provinces like Chonburi, Buriram and Sisaket. The Bhumjaithai Party also capitalised on nationalist sentiments, positioning itself as a strong supporter of military action against Cambodia. The People’s Party failed to garner sufficient support in areas outside of urban centres like Bangkok and Chiang Mai. It was popular among young voters for its ambitions to reduce the military’s influence in politics.
Projected outcome
With Charnvirakul’s win, Thailand has seen a return of political stability and the pro-monarchy, pro-military order. This government will be hard to unseat unless the pro-democracy movement gains strong support outside its urban base. The National Anti-Corruption Commission, seen as controlled by the Senate and military, has petitioned the Supreme Court to ban the People’s Party and its leaders. The move aims to further weaken the opposition, mirroring what happened with its predecessor.
The NACC has accused the People’s Party of attempting to breach ethical standards over a failed bid to amend the country’s lèse-majesté law. This petition is likely to revive the pro-democracy movement and related protests in major cities like Bangkok. Charnvirakul’s government is also likely to back harsh crackdowns on protesters. Mass detentions and sweeping arrests of pro-democracy activists could be used to keep the opposition weak.