By Nikita Billier
Hungary will hold parliamentary elections on 12 April, with all 199 National Assembly seats contested. The new legislature will elect the prime minister and form a government for the 2026–2030 term. The campaign began in late February and will last about seven weeks. Despite rising political tensions, the election process is expected to remain stable, with no significant procedural disruptions anticipated.
Backdrop
The 2026 election is Hungary’s most competitive in over a decade. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the Fidesz–KDNP alliance, in power since 2010, now face their strongest coordinated opposition. Orbán’s leadership has centralised authority, strained relations with the European Union and drawn criticism for democratic backsliding, media control and corruption. Hungary is also experiencing slower economic growth and high living costs, prompting the government to introduce pre-election relief measures such as heating subsidies.
The main challenger is the centre-right Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, advocating anti-corruption reforms, EU engagement and a shift away from Orbán’s Russia-friendly policies. Tisza nonetheless maintains nationalist positions on issues such as migration and Visegrád (V4) cooperation. This suggests a eurosceptic continuity with the Fidesz–KDNP in some policy areas. The far-right Our Homeland party is also expected to enter parliament. In 2022, multiple parties participated, but government influence over public media, opaque campaign finance and blurred boundaries between Fidesz and the state limited genuine competition. No reforms have addressed these concerns and government resources continue to favour the ruling party. Large-scale protests in Budapest have responded to government actions against civil society, the LGBTQ+ community, private media and journalists. If Fidesz retains power and the result is contested, significant unrest or isolated political violence is possible. Misinformation and media bias continue to shape the electoral environment.
Projected outcome and European implications
The election may result in a significant political shift. If Tisza wins a majority or forms a coalition, Hungary could adopt a more pro-EU stance, recalibrate its foreign policy and review domestic governance norms. The transition of power is expected to be orderly, though the political climate will remain tense.
The outcome also carries substantial implications for Europe. Under Orbán, Hungary has repeatedly blocked EU efforts to support Ukraine against Russia, leveraging its veto power and maintaining close ties with Moscow. A defeat for Orbán would facilitate Brussels’ coordination amid pressure from external actors, including the US and Russia. The potential US reaction to an Orbán defeat could prove a wild card in US-EU relations.
Tisza has stated it would end Orbán’s “special relationship” with Moscow and may revoke Hungary’s one-year exemption from EU sanctions on Russian gas imports. A Tisza government could also facilitate access to EU funds, potentially providing short- and medium-term economic support. This would leave Slovakia’s President Fico as the only major pro-Russia leader in Central Europe, strengthening the EU’s ability to manage frozen Russian assets and support Ukraine. This is particularly important given reduced transatlantic engagement since the start of the second Trump administration. Conversely, an Orbán victory would allow Fidesz–KDNP to continue obstructing EU policies on Russia and Ukraine. This could complicate continental coordination and prolong Hungary’s disruptive role in European strategy.