Tensions between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar escalated in Upper Nile, Western Equatoria and Western Bahr el Ghazal states, threatening the 2018 Peace Agreement. Early in March, clashes began in Nasir, with the Nuer White Army overrunning a South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) base, and mass arrests made in Juba.

Violence intensified with attacks on United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) personnel, airstrikes on Nasir and Kuich Payam and clashes in Abiemnom and Doleib, displacing tens of thousands of people. A hospital in Old Fangak, Jonglei, was destroyed on 3 May.

Uganda has deployed troops to Juba while Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) allies partially withdrew from security arrangements. Ongoing delays in elections, constitutional reform and deployment of unified forces, combined with economic crisis and regional instability, has increased the risk of renewed conflict nationwide.

What to Expect:

Clashes have continued in Upper Nile, amid evacuations in Nasir. Fighting has threatened food security nationwide, displaced two million people and worsened a cholera outbreak. Juba has seen heightened security, while the UNMISS and the African Union are engaged in diplomacy to prevent wider conflict.