In June, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, prompting swift Iranian retaliation. The US joined the campaign on 22 June, conducting airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. A ceasefire was announced on 24 June. Although it remains in effect as of December, concerns persist over potential breaches and renewed conflict. Iran is now pursuing both limited retaliation against Israel and prolonged engagement with international organisations while rebuilding its capabilities. Both countries face risks of regional destabilisation. Iran also suspended cooperation with the IAEA but reached a tentative agreement for renewed inspections in September. Israel has lifted domestic restrictions, operating under full readiness amid the ongoing fragile ceasefire.
What to Expect:
Ceasefire violations between Iran and Israel remain possible, with a risk of renewed direct conflict and potential US involvement. Israeli airstrikes have targeted multiple Iranian military and nuclear sites across numerous cities, while Iran has launched drone and missile attacks on Israeli military, nuclear and civilian infrastructure, damaging hundreds of buildings in urban areas. Threats from regional pro-Iran proxies operating along Israel’s borders and to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remain likely. Cyber operations have escalated, with Israeli attacks on Iran’s financial and communications networks and Iran restricting online platforms, affecting civilian access. There is also a risk of violent government-backed protests in Iran and other Middle Eastern countries against Western diplomatic and commercial interests, leading to embassy staff withdrawals.