Travel barriers and liberalisation 2025
The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, which has spread into Lebanon, combined with Iran’s involvement will continue to have an impact on flight connectivity across the Middle East as the fighting continues without progress in ceasefire talks. Airlines have yet again extended flight suspensions to these destinations through the beginning of 2025. These tensions will force additional rerouting over time, meaning higher costs and longer flight times for passengers. National aviation authorities are expected to continue advising flight operators to avoid flying specific FIRs (Flight Information Regions) or prolonging no-flying advisories, complicating travel dynamics into 2025.

The aftermath of the war in the Middle East will continue to be felt in Europe, where many countries that had introduced internal border controls in 2023 due to an increased risk of possible infiltration by violent extremists and increased illegal migration have extended these measures.

However, border checks are not the only measures taken to enhance security. The EU is expected to launch the Schengen Entry/Exit System (EES) and the EU Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS). Both aim to increase controls on non-EU visitors, contributing to the overall security of Schengen’s internal and external borders.

Over the past several years, travel to other destinations outside the Middle East has also been complicated by various internal and international disturbances, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Whether tit-for-tat moves in response to Venezuela breaking off diplomatic relations with its neighbours, fears of instability amid rising crime in Haiti, travel sanctions amid a wave of coups in West Africa or the elevated risk of flying through a conflict zone, flights to or transiting through these nations will remain limited. Meanwhile, airlines operating these routes are left in a precarious position in either electing to recuperate financial losses or keep routes suspended. These opposing forces result in short-term extensions of previously suspended routes and announcements of new stoppages on short notice. The accidental downing of Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) Flight 752 by Iran during an earlier round of heightened regional tensions in 2020 clearly demonstrated the worst-case scenario that must be considered. As such, travellers should plan accordingly when choosing business and holiday destinations given the potential need for contingent travel plans and the very real possibility of being stranded in an unfamiliar place and needing to readjust. As conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East intensify and political turmoil in parts of South America and sub-Saharan Africa persists, conflict-related route disruptions will continue to be a problem around the world in 2025.

In contrast, travel in Asia is growing progressively more open. Despite internal conflict in Myanmar and political unrest in Bangladesh, the regional tourist market is booming through many new visa-free agreements. Malaysia and Singapore signed a reciprocal visa waiver agreement with China, resulting in the opening of new air routes and an increase of over 150 percent in arrivals in the first six months of 2024. Visa liberalisation in the region has also been used to attract a greater variety of international tourists. Two clear examples are Thailand and China. The former has expanded its visa-free and visa-on-arrival programmes, allowing citizens of 93 countries to stay in the country for 60 days without a visa. The latter decided in December 2023 to simplify entry procedures for certain countries, mostly European, which historically have faced complex bureaucratic procedures when applying for a visa. As a result, mid-2024 bookings from the new visa-free countries grew by 150 percent year-on-year.

By Diego Maloney, Lorena Peña and Lorenzo Trevisan; Editor: Paul Mutter

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