ASIA-PACIFIC (APAC)
What we tracked in August: Unrest by followers of Dera religious cult in India
On 25 August, Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh, spiritual leader of Dera Sacha Sauda (DSS), a Hindu religious cult, was found guilty by a special investigations court of raping two of his female devotees in Panchkula, in India’s Haryana state, in 2002. The rape cases had high visibility as Singh is also a popular television personality and revered as a humanitarian actor by over 60 million of his followers spread across the capital Delhi, the Chandigarh union territory, and Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Rajasthan states. Singh’s rape conviction triggered violent protests by hundreds of DSS members, who vandalised and torched several railway stations, trains, police vehicles and government buildings on 25-26 August, making it one of the worst riots in India in over 20 years; at least 38 people were killed, while 269 others injured and over 2,500 protesters arrested following violent clashes between DSS members and security forces. The scale of the DSS protests signifies the potential for persecution of religious leaders to trigger widespread unrest in the country. There is an ongoing risk of further violent DSS protests in Delhi, Chandigarh, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Rajasthan states in the near-term, especially in the wake of a 20-year prison sentence imposed on Singh on 28 August. Hence, hundreds of paramilitary troops remain deployed while dusk-to-dawn curfews and demonstration bans are in force, along with security forces’ authorisation to ‘shoot-on-sight’ on violent mobs in Delhi, Haryana’s Sirsa, Panchkula and Rohtak districts (where Singh has the highest number of followers) and across Punjab, Chandigarh and Uttar Pradesh, until further notice.
What we will track in September: New escalation in Myanmar’s Rakhine state
The security situation in Myanmar’s restive Rakhine state has become increasingly volatile after major violence between government forces and Muslim ethnic Rohingya insurgents broke-out in northern areas of the state. On 24 August, a large group of ethnic Rohingya militants from the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), formerly known as Harakah al-Yaqin, launched coordinated attacks on dozens of security posts manned by police and border officers in Buthidaung, Maungdaw and Rathedaung townships in the northern part of the state. Subsequently, armed Rohingya fighters also attacked majority Buddhist ethnic Arakan villages in the region, causing at least 13 fatalities. These developments triggered fierce clashes between the military and the insurgents that claimed nearly 400 lives as of 31 August – including 370 Rohingya which the government believes were militants – making it the deadliest bout of violence witnessed in the state in recent years. Additionally, over 38,000 Rohingya were forced to flee across the border into neighbouring Bangladesh. It is certain that violent clashes in northern areas of the state – where the Rohingya form significant proportion of the population – will continue into September, amid an unprecedented armed resistance campaign by Rohingya insurgents and an equally intense military response. Maungdaw township in particular will likely remain the epicentre of violence as Rohingya militants continue to mount fierce resistance amid ongoing military operations to eliminate them. Other townships that are very likely to remain affected are Buthidaung and Rathedaung. In light of the ongoing violence that is almost certain to persist in the near-term travellers should defer all travel to northern areas of the state.
AMERICAS
What we tracked in August: Hurricane Harvey
Category 4 Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas, around 22:00 local time on 25 August (03:00 GMT, 26 August). As the strongest storm system to hit the state since Hurricane Carla in 1961, Hurricane Harvey left significant wind and flood destruction in its wake, with at least 44 people killed, 30,000 displaced, billions of USD in damage, curfews imposed and travel severely impacted. Cities and towns between Corpus Christi and Houston were hit hardest by the storm, with Houston alone witnessing its total yearly precipitation average – 127cm (50 inches) – in just four days. The relentless weather system made a second landfall as a weakened tropical storm just west of Cameron, near the border with Texas in Louisiana state, at approximately 05:00 local time (10:00 GMT) on 30 August, prompting officials to issue further storm warnings. Harvey’s insurmountable destruction – yet to be fully realised – has indeed highlighted the need for governing officials and local authorities to change the scope in which they react to natural disasters; as evolving environmental factors such as climate change continue to impact the earth, the role nature plays on travel and security will only amplify.
What we will track in September: Hurricane season and post-Harvey
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November; however, the climatological peak of activity occurs around 10 September each year, which is similar to the eastern Pacific basin’s seasonal hurricane peak in late August and early September. Thus far, two storm systems – Tropical Storm Lidia and Hurricane Irma – were forecast to wreak havoc along Mexico’s upper Pacific coastline on 1-3 September and the Windward and Leeward islands in the eastern Caribbean from 5-6 September, respectively. If one is to learn anything from Hurricane Harvey, heavy rains, strong winds, flooding and disruptions to utilities and travel can be expected in these two regions greatly regarded as tourist meccas. The projected intensity of these storms in early September, and perhaps forthcoming ones later in the month, highlights that we will likely encounter stronger storms as warmer oceans provide some of the energy needed to generate the perfect conditions for destructive hurricanes. Viewing the environment as a non-conventional security threat in relation to climate change will be paramount for local authorities and travel risk managers alike to better predict and effectively react to devastating storm systems and their broader impact on society.
EUROPE
What we tracked in August: Attacks in Spain and Finland
On 17-18 August, at least 16 people were killed and over 100 others wounded when an Islamic State (IS)-inspired terror cell carried out vehicle ramming attacks on Barcelona’s popular La Rambla street and in the Catalan resort town of Cambrils, Tarragona province. Six terrorists were killed during and following the attacks; four suspects were also arrested. Although the plot was carried out using ‘low-tech’ weapons, officials learned that the group had in fact been planning bomb attacks on tourist attractions in Barcelona for at least a year. This much larger plot was derailed by accident, when a fire started at the bomb-makers’ hideout in Alcanar on 16 August, killing three of the group’s members including their leader. The surviving terrorists quickly changed tactics. Within 24 hours of the attacks in Spain, an unrelated IS-inspired assailant fatally stabbed two people to death on Puutori (Trätorget) Square in the Finnish city of Turku before he was shot and subdued by police. The suspect entered Finland in December 2016 under a false identity and was previously known to police in Germany – by another identity – as a thief. Although the two attacks were unconnected, they demonstrated the continued risk of IS-inspired attacks in Europe in the medium-term as the terrorist group urges its supporters to attack civilians using whatever means are at their disposal.
What we will track in September: Germany federal elections on 24 September
In the German federal election on 24 September, voters will determine the next members of the Bundestag. Incumbent Angela Merkel looks poised to win her fourth term as chancellor with her centre-right Christian Democratic Union-Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CDU-CSU) coalition claiming a comfortable double-digit lead over its current coalition partner Social Democratic Party (SPD) in multiple polls since May. The only obstacle against Merkel’s fourth term comes from the possibility of a SPD-led “red-red-green” coalition with far-left Die Linke and the Greens. Meanwhile, the other end of the polls shows a much tighter competition for third place with the Greens, Die Linke, pro-business Free Democrats and far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) all polling within the 7-10 percent range. For the Greens and the Free Democrats, it will boost their chances of becoming a part of the ruling coalition and scoring cabinet seats. While Chancellor Merkel ruled out a coalition with AfD or Die Linke, a third-place finish will allow either party to present itself as the leader of the opposition. With third place presenting incentives for all four parties, the four-way competition is certain to remain fierce until 24 September.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA)
What we tracked in August: Mauritanian government entrenches power in constitutional referendum
On 5 August, with a reported turnout of over 53 percent, Mauritanians decisively endorsed a controversial constitutional referendum that would abolish the Senate and centralise a number of legal bodies, despite calls by the opposition umbrella organisation, the National Forum for Democracy and Unity (FNDU), to boycott the vote. While some protests occurred ahead of the vote – mainly in Nouakchott – the general populace was mostly apathetic about the change, indicating that President Mohammed Ould Abdel Aziz has successfully managed to centralise power and strengthen his control over the country, with little real opposition. While opposition groups accused the government of fraud, questioning the reported 85 percent vote in favour of the referendum, and held several protests in the capital in the wake of the decision, these protests quickly petered out in early August. Further major unrest around the issue is unlikely.
What we will track in September: Renewed violence in northern Mali
Between June and August the number of clashes between rival militias and militant groups in northern Mali increased markedly, with many turning their guns on United Nations (UN) forces deployed in the north of the country. These clashes culminated in two deadly attacks on United Nations Mission to Mali (MINUSMA) bases in Douentza, Mopti region, and in Timbuktu, on 14 August, sparking concern the country was slowly slipping back into a state of violence as Tuareg and pro-government forces became increasingly restless over the government’s failure to implement a 2015 peace agreement. While the situation improved in late August, with a ceasefire agreed on 23 August, concerns remain over the government’s ability to mobilise popular support for a peace deal, and its ability to restrain the nominally pro-government Imghad and Allies Tuareg Self-Defence Group (GATIA). The situation is likely to remain tense throughout September, with French officials planning a UN Security Council vote on new sanctions on Malian rebel groups, a move that the Russian government has warned may push the groups into a renewed offensive.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (SSA)
What we tracked in August: Elections in Rwanda, Angola and Kenya
2017 continues to be a big year for elections in Africa, and August featured some of the most important: Rwanda, Angola and Kenya. In what came as no surprise, Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame easily secured a third seven-year term with more than 98 percent of the vote. He appears to be on track to extend his rule into the 2020s, though the increasing authoritarianism of his rule may put him in jeopardy in the future. What was expected to be a relatively straightforward election in Angola – the ruling MPLA and its presidential candidate Joao Lourenco were slated for an easy win – has been thrown into disarray as opposition parties rejected the preliminary results and demanded a recount. As it stands, the MPLA is set to hold a majority in the 220-seat parliament, with Lourenco’s inauguration expected some time in September, if nothing changes. In the most unforeseen development, the Supreme Court in Kenya invalidated the country’s general election on the grounds that the country’s electoral commission (IEBC) committed “illegalities and irregularities”. The court’s full report is expected in September and fresh elections should be held the following month.
What we will track in September: The resilience of Boko Haram in Nigeria and northern Cameroon
In September, we’ll be watching Boko Haram in Nigeria and northern Cameroon more closely. The coalition of militaries fighting the militant group in the region appeared to have them on the run in early 2017, winning back territory that had been under their control and opening up regions that had been considered ‘no-go’ areas. In the past several months, however, Boko Haram has been resurgent, carrying out an increasing number of attacks – especially suicide bombings – on civilians in northeast Nigeria and far-north Cameroon, as the Nigerian military struggles to track down it’s wily leader, Abubakar Shekau. The effects of the ongoing conflict continue to manifest in the civilian population – a cholera outbreak in a camp for displaced people in Nigeria’s Borno state claimed its first fatalities by the end of August. In the coming month, we expect the trend to continue, with an increasing number of deadly attacks targeting civilians, and cannot rule out a major attack by the group outside of its stronghold, most likely in one of Nigeria’s major cities.
