By Suzanne Sangiovese, Director of Travel and Technology
As the world continues to face ongoing geopolitical conflicts, the hospitality industry is set for a transformative year in 2025. These conflicts are reshaping travel patterns, challenging operational stability and highlighting the need for innovative risk management strategies. For hoteliers, understanding these dynamics and preparing to adapt is crucial for resilience and success.
Geopolitical conflicts directly influence travel trends, leading to shifts in destination choices and traveler behaviors. In 2024, political issues became the top concern for tour operators, surpassing economic challenges, according to a USTOA survey. Global conflicts, including those in Ukraine and the Middle East, were cited as major worries by 58 percent of members.
Tensions in East Asia, particularly around the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, pose a threat to the region. In 2022, the travel and tourism sector made a remarkable contribution of $582.8 billion USD to China’s GDP, highlighting its critical role in the country’s economy.
To manage the challenges of geopolitical uncertainty, hoteliers may need to diversify their market strategies to reduce reliance on one specific geographic area. Conversely, regions perceived as more stable at the moment, such as parts of Latin America and Africa, are attracting more investments. In Latin America, the travel and tourism sector could inject almost $260 billion USD into the region’s economy and create around eight million new jobs over the next decade. Hoteliers in these regions have an opportunity to take advantage of these shifts by offering culturally rich experiences and appealing to a broader demographic.
Countries and Regions Most Affected by Geopolitical Instability in 2025
AMER (Americas)
- US-Mexico/US-Canada Relations: Under President Trump, the US may impose tariffs, border closures and military intervention related to drug cartels. This could trigger a significant economic and diplomatic crisis with Mexico and Canada, escalating into retaliatory actions with uncertain consequences for trade and travel.
- US Domestic Situation: Trump administration policies, including tariffs and mass deportations, may lead to domestic unrest and economic instability, with congressional gridlock further complicating governance.
- Venezuela: Despite severe economic hardship, Venezuela’s PSUV regime remains entrenched. International opposition is weak and military intervention seems unlikely under the new US administration.
EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa)
- Middle East: After Assad’s fall in Syria, Israel has strengthened, while Iran faces internal opposition and diminished influence. Türkiye is weakened politically, with pressure over Kurdish issues and Syrian refugees. A ceasefire agreement came into effect on 19 January, marking the end of a 15-month conflict in Gaza. The deal includes the release of hostages from Gaza and Palestinians in Israeli prisons, a partial withdrawal of Israeli troops and the delivery of aid, though its implementation remains fragile and far from signaling the end of the broader conflict.
- Ukraine/Russia: Russia’s demand for a neutral Ukraine remains unresolved, prolonging the conflict and destabilizing Europe. Uncertainty around Western unity, especially with the new US administration, may exacerbate the situation.
- Far-right groups in Europe: The rise of these movements driven by nationalism and anti-immigration sentiments risks undermining democratic values, social cohesion and minority rights across the continent.
- Eastern DRC: Violence between DRC forces and M23 rebels continues to displace communities, with no resolution in sight for the conflict with Rwanda.
- Sudan: Ongoing battles between military and paramilitary forces, fuelled by foreign arms supplies and new armed groups, show no signs of abating.
- Cameroon: President Biya’s leadership faces challenges from separatists in the northwest and jihadists in the north. Rising unrest may escalate around the 2025 presidential election, drawing international attention.
APAC (Asia-Pacific)
- South Korea: Political instability following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s arrest and impeachment may lead to mass protests and hinder leadership effectiveness, particularly concerning tensions with North Korea and crisis management.
High-Risk Zones: Challenges for Hospitality Professionals
Operating in conflict-prone areas presents unique challenges. Beyond the immediate risks to guest and staff safety, hoteliers must navigate fluctuating occupancy rates, supply chain disruptions and rising insurance costs. For instance, during the peak of the Ukraine conflict, many international hotel chains temporarily suspended operations or repurposed properties to house displaced populations. These examples underscore the need for comprehensive crisis management frameworks, including clear communication channels, partnerships with local authorities and contingency planning.
Proactive risk management is essential for maintaining trust and operational stability in high-risk regions. By implementing strategies such as enhanced security measures, real-time updates for guests and staff training on emergency protocols, hoteliers can build confidence among both travelers and employees.
Leveraging Technology for Risk Mitigation
Technology continues to revolutionize the hospitality industry, enabling it to better navigate geopolitical uncertainties. Advanced risk intelligence platforms deliver real-time data, empowering hoteliers to make swift, informed decisions during crises. Predictive analytics, driven by artificial intelligence (AI), can forecast emerging risks and recommend proactive measures to minimize disruptions. Communication tools have also become indispensable, with integrated platforms allowing hotels to send timely alerts to guests during emergencies. These tools not only prioritize safety but also build trust and loyalty by showcasing a commitment to guest well-being. For example, mobile apps offer localized safety information, updates and emergency contact details, creating a seamless and reassuring travel experience.
Read the full article on Hospitalitynet and check our 2025 Forecast.
