This dynamic is expected to continue through 2024.

In the first half of 2023, at least 1,800 terrorist attacks occurred in West Africa.

In the first half of 2023, at least 1,800 terrorist attacks occurred in West Africa, due to multiple factors, including poor funding and support for local security forces, leaving rural areas vulnerable to militant attacks, looting and hostile takeovers. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger alone have seen violent incidents more than double in the past six years.

Increase in extremism in APAC

The issue of extremism has perpetually plagued countries in the Asia-Pacific; however, the region must now remain on guard for another possible spike in Islamist extremism and deep divisions between communities owing to the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Asia is home to over 60 percent of the world’s Muslim population, and many experts have warned that the war is likely to enhance the appeal of extremist propaganda in Muslim-majority countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, as well as in India. 

The coming year could witness an increase in Islamist-inspired extremist activities and copycat attacks on Western interests and non-Muslim minority communities.

Extremism/hate crimes in Europe

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has triggered an increase in hate crimes towards both Jewish and Muslim communities as well as Islamist-inspired attacks. The conflict has also triggered massive demonstrations in European capitals and clampdowns on freedom of expression across several European countries. With no prospect of a short-term resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, hate crimes and violent unrest inspired by the conflict will continue in Europe.

Global Travel

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas as well as the broad shift in political atmosphere to the right has led to an increase in acts of racialised and political violence, prompting countries to increase the level of terrorist and hate crime alerts. This leads to heightened security in transportation infrastructures such as airports, trains, and metro stations, which are areas with a high concentration of people, and therefore become vulnerable. 

Most airlines have stopped flying to Israel due to the conflict, with further disruptions experienced in Jordan and Lebanon.

Security procedures, such as inspection and vigilance operations, can cause travel disruptions, whether through evacuations, ground halts, arrival delays, or increased border controls. In addition, due to the latent threat that may exist in specific destinations, transportation such as airline operators may limit the frequency of journeys as a preventative measure. Most airlines have stopped flying to Israel due to the conflict, with further disruptions experienced in Jordan and Lebanon. An escalation of the conflict could severely curtail regional air travel in the Middle East even further.