Surge in illegal immigration

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Surge in illegal immigration

Two routes have experienced increased pressure due to an upsurge of migrants, which might be considerably bigger in 2024, given the changes in the instability of the regions. As of July 2023, 250,000 migrants and refugees crossed the Darién Gap, an infamous migration route on the Colombia-Panama border, and ventured through Central America to reach the United States (US)-Mexico border.

Increased security and sporadic clashes and closures were reported on the Colombia-Panama and US-Mexico borders while a nationwide state of emergency was declared in Costa Rica in September.

As of July 2023, 250,000 migrants and refugees crossed the Darién Gap.

Meanwhile, up until October, 140,856 migrants arrived in Italian territorial waters, the majority of whom were from African countries and departed from Tunisia and Libya to cross the Mediterranean Sea. Greece and Spain have also experienced an increase in the arrival of migrants.

How have governments responded?

This situation has led to the adoption of measures by governments to regulate these flows. Pressured by governors across the country of both parties, US President Joe Biden has engaged in a strategy of enlarging legal crossing opportunities. The US government opened up new legal pathways for migrants to enter the country through Mexico and granted temporary protection status (TPS) to allow migrants to work and alleviate the strain on public resources. It also announced the construction of new section security barriers on the US-Mexico border and resumed deportation flights to Venezuela in October 2023.

Also in October, European Union (EU) countries approved a preliminary agreement on crisis regulation that would allow member states to apply tougher measures on asylum seekers when an unexpected surge in migration takes place at the bloc’s borders. As conflicts continue to rage in Ukraine, Israel and Palestinian territories, Syria, Ethiopia and Sahelian Africa further pile on the reasons for people to unwillingly leave their home countries, migration-related disruptions seem likely in the year to come.

Heightened security and associated travel disruptions are likely to continue across areas bordering Myanmar.

Refugees from Myanmar to neighbouring countries

Heightened security and associated travel disruptions are likely to continue across areas bordering Myanmar in Bangladesh, India, China and Thailand through 2024, due to refugees fleeing internal conflict in Myanmar. Though the heaviest fighting is unfolding right next door to China, Bangladesh, housing nearly one million refugees from Myanmar, will continue to be the most affected of Myanmar’s neighbours by the internal conflict, as it has been since the first massive wave of displacement caused by the 2017 Rohingya Genocide.

By Bumjoon Park, Lorena Peña and Marco Túlio Lara

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Risk of armed conflicts in 2024

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Extremism throughout the world

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