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Risk of armed conflicts in 2024
In 2023, travellers were exposed to sudden and severe risks to personal safety as well as travel disruptions when long-simmering geopolitical tensions erupted into open conflict. Travel risk intelligence around potential armed conflicts has once again become vital in an increasingly multipolar world.
Taiwan Strait
Presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan are scheduled for 13 January 2024. An open conflict across the Taiwan Strait is not likely considering Taiwan’s defensive advantages. However, the People’s Republic of China will continue to increase its military presence near Taiwan to deter calls for Taiwan’s move towards formal independence. Chinese military exercises have disrupted flights at Taiwan’s Taoyuan International Airport (TPE/RCTP) with increasing frequency since 2022. Such air traffic disruptions are likely to continue in the region in 2024, along with disruptive naval exercises and further heightened tensions.
Tensions between India and Pakistan
Heightened tensions will continue along the Line of Control (LoC) between India’s Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan’s Azad Kashmir, ahead of and during India’s general election between April and May 2024. Before India’s 2019 general elections, a deadly militant attack in India’s Kashmir triggered a military operation by India in Pakistan’s Azad Kashmir and thereafter the fiercest cross-border clashes in nearly two decades. India is likely to respond similarly to any threats or incursions along the LoC.
Conflict between Ukraine and Russia
Russia and Ukraine are now preparing for a long-term conflict entering the third year of the war. On the Russian side, military spending will increase by 70 percent in 2024, and major offensive operations continue despite heavy losses. On the Ukrainian side, the government is showing its determination to retake the territories occupied by Russia. But there is no guarantee that United States (US) President Joe Biden will obtain the additional 61.4 billion US dollars he has requested from Congress for Ukraine and that Western European countries will be able to compensate for a lesser American commitment.
Regional implications of Israel-Hamas war
The influence of regional powers has weighed heavily on Israel, the Palestinian territories and Lebanon since the outbreak of the Hamas-Israel War on 7 October 2023. US forces in Iraq and Syria have increasingly come under fire, while hate crimes against Jewish and Muslim communities have risen globally along with the disruption of travel across the Middle East. Further escalation would threaten maritime traffic across the region in addition to driving up oil and gas prices.
By Bumjoon Park, Indi Phillips, Nikita Billier and Ramya Dilipkumar
