The situation in the Middle East is as precarious as it has been for decades, with the war in Gaza upending a status quo that had lulled many regional actors into a false sense of security. Nearby, the civil war in Sudan continues apace, despite efforts at brokering a truce between the warring parties. In Europe, the war in Ukraine has dug into a violent stalemate. And yet there are rising tensions in parts of Asia, a subject we explore in more detail in this forecast.

Migration out of these conflict zones and other areas impacted by climate change has been on the rise and will be an important security concern in 2024 and beyond. States have already responded to these flows with deployments of security forces, fencing and surveillance on borders and bureaucratic obstacles for visas and documentation.

Together, the polarising conflicts and anti-migrant policies are fueling a rise in hate crimes and other forms of violence and extremism. These threats are not bound to a specific geography, and are, thus, one of our concerns for global travellers in 2024.