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Could 2023 be the year that China attempts to reclaim Taiwan?
While China is unlikely to attempt to invade Taiwan in 2023, it is nonetheless worth considering how such an attempt may play out as it will have a profound impact on safety and travel in the wider region.
Number of tourist arrivals in Taiwan
Source: Trading Economics
Depending on China’s assessment of its military capabilities and the scale of the United States (US) response, China, in order of increasing intensity, could impose a maritime blockade or close the airspace around Taiwan, bombard and occupy outlying islands or even attempt a surprise swift landing to seize the main population centres.
Even before these moves would be taken, regular international travel would largely cease due to security concerns and the declaration of no-fly zones. Should a conflict erupt, flights and ferries out of Taiwan would then be flooded with evacuees while arranging evacuations would be made difficult by expected attacks on Taiwan’s communications infrastructure.
Major ports and airports in Taiwan
Port of Keelung
Port of Taipei
Taipei Songshan Airport
Taoyuan International Airport
Port of Suao
Port of Hualien
Port of Taichung
Taichung International Airport
Port of Anping
Kaoshiung International Airport
Port of Kaohsiung
Source: Tourism Bureau Taiwan & Taiwan International Ports
Taiwan’s retaliatory strikes targeting military facilities in China, particularly in nearby Fujian province, would also pose a risk to safety and travel there. Furthermore, the conflict may involve US treaty allies that host US military bases nearby, namely Japan and South Korea, as well as disrupt international flights and maritime travel in the wider Pacific region.
Major airports in Fujian province, China
Nanping Wuyishan Airport
Fuzhou Air Base
Fuzhou Changle International Airport
Fuzhou Air Base
Longtian Air Base
Longyan Guanzhishan Airport
Huian Air Base
Quanzhou Airport
Xiamen Gaoqi International Airport
Zhangzhou Airfield
Zhangpu Air Base
Source: Great Circle Mapper
Airspace closures due to military operations would make many flights connecting Southeast Asia with Northeast Asia and North America reroute to longer routes or be suspended for an extended period of time; flights connecting Europe and Northeast Asia over China would also be affected.
By Bumjoon Park
