Two crucial risks lie on the horizon as a result of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine: that of a leadership change within Russia, and the risk of further Russian escalation to avert defeat. In 2023 it may become harder for NATO to claim that it is not part of a larger conflict, complicated by the fact that hotspots of conflict within NATO may also escalate.

But the real major player to manage is China. Two years of “zero-COVID” lockdowns and soaring energy prices have left Beijing weaker economically, with President Xi Jinping tightening his control domestically in response. China has shown no intention to moderate its increasing assertiveness over Taiwan and a push to change Taipei’s status quo remains likely.

Ultimately, as global recession makes the financial outlook darker everywhere, so does rising nationalism and associated geopolitical risks, which are higher in peripheral areas, where spheres of influence collide. All these factors will contribute to making travel riskier and more prone to sudden disruptions in 2023.

For companies to manage these risks, it’s critical their intelligence teams are continuously updated to get a deeper sense of any signs of security deterioration. 

For travellers, they’ll need to be kept informed with relevant information on their travel destination and route, so they can be alerted to possible unrest or possible military escalation that can disrupt travel plans and business at best, and prove dangerous at worst.