By Ramya Dilpkumar
Robust security measures will be implemented in countries which have a heightened risk of terrorist attacks in South Asia at the end of Ramadan, culminating in Eid-ul Fitr festivities tentatively on 21-23 April, and the subsequent Eid al-Adha festivities which are forecast to occur on 28 June-2 July.
These events present a prime target for religious extremists and militants operating in countries including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.
Pakistan and Afghanistan have witnessed multiple terrorist attacks targeting mosques and religious gatherings during Eid. For this reason, in May 2022, over 3,500 security personnel were deployed to Pakistan’s capital Islamabad alone, during Eid-ul Fitr.
Moreover, there has been an increase in militant attacks targeting security forces and civilians in both countries in recent months, owing to which security measures will be high.
The Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP) militant group resumed their hostilities in Pakistan after failed negotiations with the government in November 2022, carrying out a major attack targeting police at a mosque in Peshawar on 30 January that left 101 people dead.
In Afghanistan, frequent attacks have been carried out by the Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K) group since the Taliban takeover of the country in August 2021, most recently a suicide bombing at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kabul on 12 January, in which at least 20 people were killed.
In both Pakistan and Afghanistan, security forces lack intelligence, resources and trained manpower to prevent large-scale coordinated attacks.
Counter-terror operations are further hindered by poor relations between the two countries’ governments, with regular cross-border firing and trade embargoes taking place over territorial and sectarian disputes.
Countries like India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives that have not witnessed terrorist attacks during Eid in recent years have continued to implement tight security measures, partly due to a history of terrorism in their countries.
Authorities in these countries frequently receive intelligence reports of an impending terror attack on hard and soft targets.
Extremists and militant groups in these countries have been unable to carry out a large-scale attack in urban areas in recent years due to effective policing and ongoing counter-terrorism raids. However, the threat of lone-wolf attacks remains.
There is also a risk of communal clashes during religious festivals in India and Sri Lanka, where tensions persist between minority Muslims and other religious groups. In India, Hindu and Muslim groups have regularly clashed during Eid festivities in multiple major cities including Mumbai, Lucknow and Hyderabad.
Similar tensions between Sri Lanka’s Sinhalese Buddhists and the country’s minority Muslim population, which have the potential to escalate to unrest, have been reported during Muslim festivities in the Eastern and Southern provinces.
Visitors on essential travel to countries with a risk of terrorism and communal violence during Eid festivities should take caution; keep a low profile near security forces and sensitive targets such as mosques, imambargahs, religious gatherings, markets and government buildings which have been targeted by militants in the past. Anticipate more checkpoints and keep identification and travel documents readily available for inspection.
In Bangladesh and Pakistan, travellers can expect restrictions on movement of private vehicles, and, particularly in Pakistan, also disruptions to mobile and internet services in areas affected by processions.
Stay vigilant and report any suspicious behaviour and packages to local authorities. In the event of an attack, shelter in place, or leave the area if you are able to do so.
Travellers should also avoid large unruly crowds due to the potential of unrest as police often use heavy-handed measures to disperse them. Seek shelter at the first signs of unrest.
Ramya Dilipkumar is Riskline’s APAC Team Leader.