By Indi Phillips

Across Israel and the Palestinian Territories, a significant uptick in violence has taken place since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned to office in December 2022.

The governing coalition has placed the extreme far-right Bezalel Smotrich, a self-described fascist and racist, and Itamar Ben Gvir in positions of authority to push for the politicisation of Israel’s security apparatus, including police.

Smotrich, as Minister of Finance and Ben Gvir, Minister of National Security, are divisive figures even within the coalition and their current push for a major judicial overhaul, significantly reducing the independence of the judiciary from the Knesset, has triggered massive, nationwide protests.

Concerns within Israel have been mounting about the new coalition’s open disregard for human rights and democratic rule of law. Former Israel Defence Force (IDF) commanders have spoken out publicly to US congress in Washington, warning against the ongoing trend towards extreme securitisation and increasingly bellicose rhetoric of the new Coalition.

The Head of Police, Kobi Shabtai, has voiced concerns about Ben Gvir’s direct involvement in police activity and expressly ordered senior police officers to avoid contact with him after Ben Gvir attempted to oust Shabtai when he deemed police response to the nationwide anti-judicial reform protests insufficient.

A condition of Ben Gvir’s participation in the coalition was the implementation of immediate reforms to policing, allowing his ministerial involvement in policing policy decisions.

The proposed judicial reforms, coupled with Ben Gvir’s attempts and successes to politicise the security apparatus, as well as Smotrich’s violent and dehumanizing discourse, are feeding fears that violence in Israel and the Palestinian Territories will escalate to levels not seen in nearly two decades.

Already an alarming trend is asserting itself. Increasingly securitised and extreme rhetoric in the Israeli political sphere has an immediate impact on the situation between Israel and the Palestinian Territories. Coming on the heels of 2022, the most deadly year on record for Palestinians across the West Bank with 151 Palestinians killed in IDF raids and settler attacks, 2023 already looks to outpace those figures.

As of February 2023, Palestinian deaths across the West Bank and Israel stand at 80, alongside 14 Israeli fatalities. For context, violence carried out by Palestinians in 2022 resulted in the deaths of at least 25 Israelis in multiple retaliation attacks on both security forces and civilians.’

The security environment continues to deteriorate. Deadly IDF raids conducted in Jenin Camp and Nablus Old City, initially as arrest operations, resulted in IDF members firing live ammunition on civilians.

The IDF continues to order the demolition of Palestinian residences across the West Bank, which triggers further unrest, while the number of new Israeli settler homes continues to grow, with over 7,000 more approved in February. In the period between January and February 2023 at least 131 structures were demolished and in 2022 at least 1,031 structures were demolished.

This destruction, in addition to the increasing tempo of IDF raids combined with looser rules of engagement for police and IDF and regular settler attacks in the West Bank – 77 reported in January 2023, followed by a major riot in Huwara the following month – will provoke more retaliatory attacks by Palestinians targeting Israelis.

Relations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority are at an all-time low, while the coalition is increasingly deadlocked internally with the opposition over the extent of the judicial reforms.

The extreme political rhetoric of the governing coalition and the situation on the ground will further the intensification of violence in the near-term.

Indi Phillips is a political and security risk analyst covering Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East.