As the pandemic has continued, the objective risks have changed, as well as how they are perceived. The medical risk is no longer as severe as it was at the beginning of the pandemic for individuals who are vaccinated. Further, travellers and travel managers are no longer willing to view destinations as either high- or extreme-risk. Covid policies and restrictions are increasingly seen by people and their employers as hurdles that must be overcome in order for travel to take place. Indeed, we’ve recently seen attention shift back towards destinations’ security and natural risks.

The pandemic has exposed two key but opposite biases in how we perceive destination risks. For some, they overestimate the likelihood of something going wrong, usually because media stories tend to focus on negative events. This makes them more likely to take extreme measures to avoid the risk. For others, they ignore or minimise higher likelihood or impact risks because they do not wish to engage in the behaviour required to minimise those risks.

To counter these biases, it’s critical to give people a comprehensive view of a destination that addresses the specific risks that may be encountered. By providing factual, considered information in context and at the right moments – when deciding whether to travel to the destination or when a risk event has taken place – it counteracts emotional or heuristic responses that result in misperceptions.

Geopolitical risk potential

When it comes to gauging political risk, it’s important to remember that conflict can erupt suddenly and without warning. When there have been weeks of media attention on a conflict and the world is looking, it’s normally due to the parties involved using the media to better posture themselves and achieve more at the negotiating table. There are three regions where we are increasingly concerned about the political risk:

The spectre of a war between Russia and a Western-backed Ukraine is currently the most significant issue. Particularly with the troop deployment that is occurring along the borders. A war across the Taiwan Strait remains a possible outcome of the geopolitical situation in Asia. Lastly, the pandemic itself has impacted political risk. In several Western European nations and in the US in particular, the pandemic has exposed deepening political polarisation and has led to greater distrust of institutions.

Intelligence and information dissemination

When it comes to managing a crisis, getting up-to-date information is of course vital. And so is the quality of that information. Especially at the beginning of a crisis, misinformation can be rampant as people scramble to understand and evaluate a situation. This is why it’s crucial to combine AI tools with human intelligence. We can gather data from hundreds of thousands of sources, but professional analysts with local understanding are key when it comes to evaluating the veracity of data, putting it into context and evaluating the impact.

This article was first published in ITIJ.

Emanuele Scansani is Riskline’s Director of Partnerships and Strategic Relations.